Russia’s interest in the South Caucasus,
contrary to popular belief is still going strong. The Russians
still have military bases in Abkhazia Georgia, in Armenia, and
some troops in Azerbaijan, while more than 70 thousand soldiers
have been injected into Chechnya to tame the rebels, with an
extra fifty thousand men and 350 tanks on the Georgian Northern
border, and 15 hundred men in South Ossetia. With such forces
spread out all over the region, it is pretty clear that Russian
president, Vladimir Putin’s economic and military ambitions
in the Caucasus are more than just a healthy foothold. But the
question is, why?
The answer is two fold. The Russians think
they cannot afford to give independence to anybody who wishes
it, and also Russia believes its territorial integrity depends
on maintaining a presence in the region. For instance in Tartarstan,
where more than 18 million Muslims live in central Russia, sits
Russia’s largest oil reserve. Putin and his government cannot
afford a rebellion if they want to maintain their natural resources
and keep a unified Russia.
The other possible answer is more historical
and political. Russia is still a country attached to its perhaps
more glorious communist times, when the Soviets controlled more
diverse nations and natural resources than any other countries
in the world. This nostalgia can explain the Putin government’s
tough policies over its neighbors who were once part of the
Soviet block.
South Ossetia, truly the Southern extension
of North Ossetia where the horrible events in Beslan took place
(commandos stormed a school where militant rebels held hundreds
of children and teachers hostage, 200 hundred died, many of
whom were children) is just one peace of the puzzle in Russia’s
overall military policy towards the South Caucasus. This rather
small region populated by no more than 70 thousand, in which
30% are Georgian and the rest Ossetian, is trapped between high
hills in the East, West, and the impassable Caucasus mountains
in the North separating Russia from Georgia.
Since August fighting has been on and off
in the region creating a potentially explosive situation where
Ossetian separatists and Cossack mercenaries from the Don river,
who are aided supported by Russian troops and advisers have
been battling Georgian soldiers situated both inside South Ossetia
and outside in Georgia. The military situation is complicated
and riddled with small offensives, firefights, and sometimes
bombardment—civilian and military casualties are light but continuous.
Living in the trenches in the hills surrounding
the Ossetian valley are hundreds of Ossetian and Cossack soldiers
supported by heavy artillery and tanks. Only one paved road
exists in the region on an axis North/South. There are six Georgian
villages where 10 thousands people live. Of these six villages,
Tamaracheni, the most Southern of the villages, is the most
exposed to Ossetian firing and RPG attacks.
These villages are the very sources of
the conflict. The Ossetians want the villages back. In order
to prevent such action, the Georgian government has sent in
its best battalion. The unit has taken positions in the villages,
and on two surrounding hills to keep watch on their enemies.
However, the Georgian soldiers in the battalion, all trained
and equipped by the US army, keep close watch.
Every day patrols deep inside Ossetian
territory over the hills are organized to retake positions,
or to spy on new enemy positions. Snipers are also sent in the
surrounding hills to hunt down Ossetian soldiers or bring back
intelligence to the company’s headquarter in Tamaracheni. During
the heavy fighting in mid-August, the Ossetians tried to retake
one of the Eastern hills and its forest overlooking Tamaracheni.
More than 400 on the Ossetian/Cossack side were killed, while
the Georgian lost only 16 men, while125 managed to stop the
offensive.
Today the overhaul situation in South Ossetia
remains explosive. The 15 hundred Russian “peace keepers” were
put in place supposedly to maintain order and peace. However
the reality of the situation in the region is far from what
the Russians want the international community to know.
Officially, no Russian help or soldiers
are aiding the Ossetian cause, they do not supply them with
weapons, training, night vision technology, or even troop reinforcement
from Russia. And they don’t provide mercenaries.
In fact, the Russians have even supplied
the Ossetians with tanks, two combat helicopters, and hundreds
of Cossacks mercenaries paid one hundred dollars a day, with
extra pay of 200 dollars if they kill a Georgian, and one thousand
if they blow up a tank.
It is hard to say what the future holds
for the people and soldiers living inside the South Ossetian
region. However it is safe to say that the situation will remain
dangerous at least until the end of the year, as none of the
opposing parties are ready to concede any terrain. The Russians
too are far from sponsoring peace, and wish to see an independent
Ossetian state, which could be attached to Russia once more.
Heavy propaganda work has influenced the
Ossetians over the past ten years in such a way that they would
rather be part of Russia, than to be a small nation led by a
young Georgian president like Mikhail Saakashvili.
To follow Georgia and its will to change
into a more modern and western society would mean in the long
run a more economically profitable and stable situation for
Ossetia. The answer for Georgia and the separatist regions can
be found in a system where all ethnic groups would have a say
in Georgia’s future while keeping its cultural and ethnic particularities.
However such utopia will not convince most Ossetians or Abkhazians
who wish to remain independent or part of Russia. The struggle
for Ossetia is far from over, and future clashes and deaths
among civilians as well as military are likely to continue.